Winning at sports betting is very challenging indeed.
With standard pricing at -110/-110 on most games,
the house enjoys over a 4% edge on most bets.
That is very hard to overcome, especially since
many gamblers struggle to win more than even 50%
of their picks. To overcome that edge you must win
at a nearly 53% clip.
However, not all games have such a large house
edge. These are the lines that can be bet into to
show a profit.
Ways to Win at Sports Betting
Just as the old saying goes, “there are many ways
to skin a cat.” There are also many ways to win at
sports betting. Let us examine some of these ways
now.
Line Shopping and Steam Chasing
Line shopping is an easy way to gain an edge. This
method involves looking for sharp, trusted lines
(usually from well respected, liquid books) and then
finding other sites that are slow to update their
lines. This can happen a lot in the last hour before
game time. One book may list a team at -3 and then
all of the sudden the line starts dropping, first to 2.5
and then all the way down to 2 and finally 1.5.
However, while the line is at -2.5 at one book,
another may still have -3. This would provide a
great opportunity to take the underdog and “chase
the steam.”
Tailing a Respected Capper
Sometimes, you will find a handicapper who sells or
gives away picks who has a solid track record.
There are a few reputable sites that offer picks for
sale that you can use to profit. Being early is key
here, as this can be where the “steam” mentioned
above often originates. If a big time syndicate is
pounding a line into shape, you want to be in as
early as possible, before books catch on and adjust.
Bonus Chasing
Bonuses are in shorter supply than in years past,
but there are still good values to be found here.
Sportsbooks often offer a “first time deposit” bonus
or a reload bonus for players who are depositing.
This can be a goldmine when played correctly. It is
good to always try and max out the bonus while it is
available. So if a book offers a reload bonus of 20%
up to a $2000 deposit, it is in your best interest to
deposit the full amount and take advantage of the $
400 bonus. Signing up for a new book just to get the
bonus is often a good play as well. Hunt online for
books, talk to your friends, and search forums to
find the best bonuses available. Be especially aware
of special bonuses during busy times such as the
NFL Playoffs or big soccer betting events such as
the World Cup, Euros or even the Champions League
finals, since books will be highly competitive and
vying for your action.
Do It Yourself
You can also “do it yourself” and become a
handicapper. However, most, if not all, information
that you come up with (widely available information)
is already priced into the lines. So, it doesn’t do you
much good to look up the weather forecast or the
coaches’ records on primetime games or other
stats such as rushing yards or goals scored. The
bookies, and other smart handicappers, have
already pored over all this information and it has
been accounted for. But if you are a computer whiz,
or good with numbers, you may be able to develop a
computer program to crunch tons of numbers in
order to come up with an edge. A tip here: the
smaller the market, the less attention paid to it, by
bookies and other gamblers. So you may have a
better shot at finding an edge in a smaller sport or
market such as certain props.
Become the Bookie/Bet on an Exchange
Exchange betting is becoming more and more
popular nowadays, with the advent of the internet
and online books over a decade ago. This can allow
you to effectively “become the bookie” and offer
other gamblers odds on a certain outcome. Even
when taking into account the house commission,
this can still prove very profitable.
Let’s look at an example now.
Respected sportsbook A has a MLB baseball game
listed as
Team A -130
Team B +110
You are browsing your favorite exchange and see
the best available offer at
Team A -145
Team B +100
You decide to put in an offer and put up $105 to win
$100 and pick Team B to win. Now the exchange
will update to show
Team A -145
Team B +105
Someone decides to take your offer and bets the full
$100 to win $105. Even taking into account the
house’s cut (2% of all winning bets), you are still in
good shape and better off than taking this bet at the
well respected Book A.
Getting Paid
Of course, if you win at sports betting, it is no good
unless you ultimately get paid. Make sure you bet
with highly respected books for the most part, but
don’t be afraid to take a shot at a smaller, up and
coming book. Read up online about the book and
find out what others are saying. Try the live chat
and see what withdrawal options they have. Maybe
start off with a small deposit and then withdraw
after a few weeks and see how they treat you. If
you are getting endless emails and vague answers,
it might be best to avoid this book. Initiating a
cashout during peak times (NCAA March Madness,
Super Bowl, World Cup) might be a good idea, since
the books will probably be flush with cash and able
to pay to keep the business going.
Things to Avoid
Probably the most important aspect of winning at
sports betting is knowing what to avoid. There is a
myriad of things to avoid when betting sports. For
example, try to avoid paying -110 when -105 is
easily available somewhere else. Don’t bet more
than normal because you’re stuck for the day/
week/month/year. Don’t bet more because the
game is on TV. Take any picks with a grain of salt.
Most picks, especially picks that are given away,
are worth their weight in gold, so 0. Occasionally
you’ll find someone worth following, but chances
are they are just trying to sucker you in to purchase
future “locks” with the promise of a free half-
season if they happen to lose.
Avoid betting on your hometown team if it becomes
a big deal if you lose. What I mean is that it’s fine to
bet on your hometown team, but not if a loss will
cause you to automatically bet bigger and bigger on
later games that day. Some fans become so
emotionally invested that it is best to just watch the
game and avoid making a bet. Another solid reason
to avoid this is because most local bookies (online
and on the streets) will bump the lines to account
for heavy action on the hometown team, giving you
a worse value.
For the most part, avoid teasers, parlays, and future
betting . The same goes for betting in running . These
markets do not offer much value, unless you use
line shopping or other tactics to scout out a good
value. Bookies are too smart and will simply chew
you up with the juice over time. The juice is simply
too high for teasers, parlays, futures, and live
betting for the vast majority of bettors.